Wood Mackenzie forecasts 42% annual growth in US medium and heavy-duty truck electrification over next decade

In the USA, consultants Wood Mackenzie say: “The electrification of medium and heavy-duty trucking stands at a pivotal inflection point, with a projected 42% compound annual growth rate over the next decade”. Publishing a new report, “Watt’s Under the Hood – the road to medium and heavy duty trucking electrification” it said the transformation was “driven by compelling economics, technological innovation, and strategic infrastructure deployment that will fundamentally reshape freight logistics across America”.

It said the first wave would be low-mileage commercial vehicles, with a rapid expansion from 15% of short-haul trucking by weight in 2035 to 52% by 2050. It said this would be driven by “superior economics for fleet operators with existing depots and access to industrial electricity rate structures”.

Wood Mackenzie said the infrastructure requirements to support this transformation are “substantial yet achievable” with a $4.6bn “investment opportunity” over the next decade to install 57,000 DC fast charging ports and 141,000 AC Level 2 ports nationwide.

Charging outside the depot to electrify long-distance trucking “will reshape interstate freight transportation”, it said. Charging will require over 12,000 specialised megawatt-level charging ports by 2040 and deployment ”will follow distinct geographic patterns”, first in West Coast states and then along the Eastern Seaboard, Midwest.

Wood Mackenzie said depot charging would continue to be important but in later years direct medium voltage DC charging stations ”will offer up to 82% lower costs per mile compared to diesel by bypassing traditional transformer and switchgear requirements, accessing wholesale-tier electricity pricing, and improving overall system efficiency”.

The company said its total cost of ownership analysis “reveals compelling economics for electric trucks across all segments, though the timeline to cost parity varies significantly by application”. However it also highlighted an “even more compelling” case in the long term using autonomous electric trucks, “which could cover at least twice the daily mileage of conventional trucks while eliminating driver-related costs”.

In China, meanwhile, another potential charging model is in view as battery maker CATL announced plans to expand its network of ‘battery swap’ stations, both for passenger vehicles (branded as “Choco-Swap”) and heavy trucks (branded as “QIJI”). All the swapping stations will be equipped with Shenxing supercharging systems so each station serves both as a battery-swapping node and a high-power charging hub, giving users a choice of system.

Announcing new batteries for the Choco-Swap brand, CATL promised to build 4,000 integrated charge–swap stations by the end of 2026, to add to its existing 1,470 stations. Stations could serve nearly 300 cities by the end of 2026.

For the light truck sector CATL has partnered with logistics operator DST. By the end of 2026 the partners plan to jointly put 5,000 standardized battery swap light trucks into operation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area by the end of 2026.

For the HGV sector, CATL’s Qiji Energy business plans to reach 900 heavy truck battery swap stations by the end of 2026.

Its not clear whether the Chinese ‘swap or charge’ model will be an option as CATL expands its footprint outside China. It opens up an option for CATL to build ‘direct to user’ partnerships, which would put it in competition with electricity utilities offering pure charging.