“Blind optimism” will not deliver transition to electric vehicles, SMMT warns Climate Change Committee

The CCC 2026 Progress Report to Parliament identifies transport as one of the sectors that must deliver the largest emissions reductions over the remainder of the decade, arguing that widespread electrification of road transport is essential if the UK is to meet its carbon budgets and longer-term net-zero targets.

The committee says surface transport will account for a significant proportion of the emissions savings required by 2030 and highlights EV adoption as a key driver of future reductions.

The CCC report follows news that the government is consulting manufacturers on plans to water down ZEV rules, potentially allowing more hybrid sales and providing greater compliance flexibility as part of wider discussions with manufacturers.

Responding to the CCC report, Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, criticised the committee’s view that government should “stand firm” on the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate despite slower-than-expected market demand for electric vehicles.

Recent market data showed battery-electric vehicles accounted for 27.3% of new car registrations in May, which is below the 2026 ZEV Mandate target of 33%.

Electric van sales are even less - 16 percentage points away from ZEV Mandate targets in the year-to-date - which manufacturers say is due to due to poor residual values, high upfront costs, their limited range, which is further reduced when carrying a heavy payload, and issues with accessing charging.

There is currently no equivalent mandate for trucks, despite expectations that HGVs will play a major role in transport decarbonisation.

Hawes said: “The dependence on electrification to deliver our climate goals is self-evident but the pathway cannot be built on blind optimism.

“Reducing surface transport emissions is essential but energy prices remain too high, production costs uncompetitive, charging infrastructure at best uneven, and natural demand too low.

“Yet the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) doubles down by telling government to ‘stand firm’ on the ZEV mandate, with the heroic assumption that 95% of the new car and van market will be EV by 2030. 

“The mandate compels supply, but it cannot compel demand. Despite the massive increase in EV sales, brought about by manufacturer investment, discounting and government incentives, take up is still below both expectations and targets.

He called on the government to take action and to acknowledge the negative effect the mandate is having on production, jobs and future investment. 

Hawes said: “Ambition matters, but a regulation that constrains consumer choice, damages industry and slows decarbonisation will undermine industrial, economic and climate goals.

“Government should challenge these CCC assumptions and rebalance the pathway to this shared goal, while doubling down on enablers such as VAT reductions on charging and broader fiscal incentives to strengthen delivery.”