Concern about the impact of global conflict on UK supply chains has surged dramatically among transport and storage operators, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business Insights survey.
The research reveals a sharp escalation in anxiety levels across the logistics sector, following the recent outbreak of conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran.
The survey, conducted between 16–29 March, shows that 29.4% of transport and storage businesses are now concerned about the impact of international conflict on their supply chains over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, 15.2% cite worries about shipping disruption.
The spike follows the late-February escalation in the Middle East, which saw key trade routes affected, including the effective closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
The latest figures represent a steep increase compared with just a few months ago. In December 2025, only 6.5% of transport and storage firms reported concerns about international conflict, while just 5.4% highlighted potential shipping disruption.
That equates to a 22.9 percentage point jump in concern over global conflict in just four months, alongside a 9.8 percentage point rise in fears linked to supply chain disruption.
David Jinks, Parcelhero head of consumer said the findings mark an unprecedented rise in the sector’s worries around the effect of conflict on trade.
He said: “These results follow the USA and Israel’s surprise attack on Iran at the end of February and the resulting conflict across the Middle East.
“The repercussions included the effective closure of the Straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. This represents a huge escalation in the number of businesses expressing worry over these issues.”
Jinks added that while the logistics sector is clearly feeling the strain, the data suggests even higher levels of concern among its key customers. Manufacturers and retailers reported significantly greater anxiety, underlining the widespread impact of geopolitical instability across the wider economy.
According to the survey, 42.3% of manufacturers are now worried about the impact of international conflict, with 28.7% concerned about supply chain disruption. Among retailers, 39.4% cited concerns over conflict and 31.8% over disruption.
Jinks said these figures represent a dramatic shift from December, when only 13.8% of manufacturers and 15.6% of retailers expressed concern about global conflict. At that time, supply chain disruption worried just 6.1% of manufacturers and 14.8% of retailers.
The 28.5 percentage point rise among manufacturers highlights the scale and speed at which business confidence has been affected by geopolitical developments.
This level of concern could increase following the failure of peace talks between the US and Iran - and even if negotiations resume international supply chains face continued increased costs and disruption for months, Jinks warned.
