To mark MT’s 120th anniversary, we asked leading figures from the road transport world to predict how the industry might look 120 years from now. Here, Chris Clowes, executive director at global supply chain and logistics consultancy, SCALA gives us his thoughts
Trying to predict what transport will look like in 2145 is a bit like asking someone in the 1800s to imagine modern air travel. We might think we know where things are heading, but the reality could be something we haven’t even considered yet.
That said, one thing is certain: getting there from where we are today won’t be easy. Infrastructure will be a massive hurdle. Our existing roads, railways, and airports were built for a world of petrol engines, steel tracks, and traditional aviation. Replacing or upgrading them to accommodate self-driving fleets, underground cargo tunnels, or high-speed intercity transport won’t just require money – it will call for a substantial amount of political will and a total rethink of urban planning. That in itself will pose challenges, given governments are continuously changing, and reactive policy often lags behind technological advancement.
Any societal shift requires an evolution in public attitudes, too. Right now, trust in automation is shaky at best. Many people won’t be thrilled about giving up control of their cars to AI, for example. It’s not just about safety – though that is, of course, an extremely important factor to consider. If every journey is tracked, will people push back against a transport system that feels more like surveillance? It’s worth pointing out the legal grey area that automation could create, too; who will bear responsibility for road accidents in an AI-powered transport system?
Then there is the impact on industry. To deliver real innovation and remain competitive, the motor industry – and the skills of its personnel – will also need to adapt, fast, and continuously. Job roles will change or be rendered obsolete – take the taxi driver in the case of self-driving cars, for example.
Security is another huge issue when we consider increased automation. The more our transport system relies on digital networks, the more vulnerable it becomes to cyber threats. Hack an autonomous vehicle, and you’ve got a traffic jam. Hack an entire fleet of self-driving lorries or passenger aircraft, and you’ve got a national crisis.
There’s also the question of energy. Fossil fuels will be long gone by 2145; what replaces them? Will we be relying on hydrogen? Advanced batteries? Again, it could be something we haven’t even discovered yet. Regardless, we’ll need to solve major challenges around energy storage, resource scarcity, and sustainability to make transport viable.
That being said, maybe we’re looking at all this the wrong way. As Henry Ford once alluded to, if you asked someone in the 19th century what they wanted, they’d have said a faster horse - not a car. Are we still too focused on improving what we already have, instead of imagining something entirely different? What’s to say that, by 2145, hyper-realistic virtual reality or even teleportation couldn’t become viable options?
What is clear is that the future of transport won’t just be about making things faster or greener – it will be about rethinking how we move from place to place entirely. Whether that leads us to a world of seamless, intelligent mobility or into the face of society’s biggest challenge yet will depend on how we tackle the years ahead.
