May saw a further increase to the TEG Price Index, which rose 4.4 points (3.55%) to 128.2. Year-on-year the index also increased 4.4 points (3.55%), according to the latest report.
Compared to May 2024, haulage rose 9.1 points (7.63%) year-on-year.
Meanwhile, the courier price index rose 4.1 points (3.31%) in May to reach 128.0. This was slightly behind the overall index.
Year-on-year growth was static with the courier index in May 2024 also standing at 128 points.
For the first time since January 2022 the haulage index overtook the courier index in May, landing at 128.3 compared to 128.0 for the courier index.
It was another month of price rises for 13.6m artic vehicles, with the artic index increasing slightly behind the overall haulage metric by 4.1 points (3.5%) to reach 120. This followed a 5.5-point (4.67%) rise for artics in April.
The report said that given the late Easter this year, some May trends were predictable. “A delayed fall in haulage demand is commonplace post-Easter, and May’s TEG Index reveals as much. The 2025 index therefore appears to be running a month ahead of the usual May trend for prices and could correct itself in the coming months.”
The report added that the picture for artics is similar, with a typical month-on-month rise between April and May as artic demand kept pace with overall haulage.
“With demand for haulage strong and rising, we could experience a historically high peak in prices over the summer – perhaps during August. There’s even potential for that peak to surpass Covid 2020 levels, despite the environment being far less chaotic,” the report predicted.
Other factors may be contributing to strong demand for haulage, the report surmised, pointing to the good weather, which has seen the UK officially record its sunniest spring on record.
“If the warm weather continues, we can expect haulage demand to remain high,” the report said.
There have also been reports of strategic shipment increases following the announcement of US tariff increases on 2 April, the report noted.
It concluded: “Two months on, with the UK one of the first countries to broker a deal with the US and therefore offer a level of predictability, we can expect a resulting rise in incoming shipments, pushing UK haulage demand higher still.
“Meanwhile, the haulage supply bottleneck appears to be easing. Looking specifically at artics, the 10% year-on-year supply drop in April was followed by a lesser 9.2% fall in May. That’s still a two-month downward trend - which does not align with 2024 supply movement.”
Turning to an analysis of the transport industry the report said the sector continued to experience inflationary pressures in May, pointing to a general increase in pay for HGV 1 drivers as a key driver. It added that April’s cut in interest rates by the Bank of England to 4.25% may ease other overheads while helping to maintain consumer demand.
It further added that the impact of global tariff changes on logistics firms remains unclear and pointed to HSBC UK’s recently published survey of 92 logistics firms in May which found that 75% predict they’re likely to be impacted by changes to tariffs and policies.
Another 28% said they had delayed investment decisions, while 10% had decided to act quickly and bring forward investment. Meanwhile 14% felt their future plans had been positively impacted by diversifying product services and offerings or expanding into new markets.
The report said: “Transport businesses have learnt to expect, anticipate, and adapt to change in recent years. And yet, regardless of global uncertainty, strong demand for goods continues.
“Coupled with better weather bolstering UK confidence and consumer spending, the summer season looks promising. Logistics operators armed with sufficient insight to take advantage should perform well.”
Kirsten Tisdale, Aricia senior logistics and supply chain consultant, commented: “It’s been a very active month for road transport news: HGV new registrations down in Q1, truck repair costs up, boot camps axed, early estimates from ONS for April showing a general YoY increase in pay of 6.4% with Adzuna showing an 11% YoY salary increase for HGV 1 drivers in May, and warnings of a doubling of cargo ships heading towards Europe from Asia as a result of US tariffs.
“All of these will have an inflationary impact, even with the relatively low diesel price, so it’s no surprise to see that the TEG haulier index is up by 7.6%.”
