The TEG Price Index, compiled by the Transport Exchange Group, crept up by 0.8 points (0.63%) to 127.4 in July - a month that typically experiences falling prices.
The group, which provides software and platform solutions that connect transport providers with those needing their services, provides a monthly index of haulage and courier transport prices.
Its latest TEG Index revealed that prices in July were 3.7 points (2.99%) higher than 12 months ago.
Following the same trend, the Haulage Price Index increased 0.8 points (0.64%) to 126.5, leaving it 5.5 points (4.55%) higher than July 2024.
However, artic prices only rose 0.2 points (0.17%) in July.
The Courier Price Index rose by 0.7 points (0.55%) to 128.2, leaving it 2 points (1.58%) higher than July 2024.
July’s upward movement followed a 1.6 point (1.25%) fall in June. Both these months countered historical trends.
Demand for artics increased by 4.94% during July, while artic supply fell by 8.40%.
Demand hikes were even greater in the market for 7.5 tonne capacity, rising by a full 13.60%. Meanwhile, the supply of 7.5 tonne capacity fell by 0.90%.
The report to the Index said limited vehicle availability appeared to be the most likely cause of price increases, adding that, while supply and demand ultimately dictate rates, last month several key variables shifted both.
These include the ongoing HGV driver shortage, which impacted available arctic supply last month, possibly compounded by employed drivers taking annual leave.
It added that the shift in the 7.5 tonne market could be attributed to the product categories in demand in July – for example, demand for furniture and white goods in summer sales.
Fuel prices hardened during July for both petrol and diesel, which may also have nudged transport prices upwards.
The report also noted that there may have been some minor market corrections in July following an unexpected transport price drop in June, adding that typical summer trends have proved elusive in 2025, possibly due to the introduction of fresh US tariffs first mooted in spring.
It pointed to one recently reported tariff consequence relating to UK vehicle manufacturing. British car and van production in the first half of 2025 hit its lowest level since 1953 - excluding the industry shutdown during Covid.
Car output fell 7.3% while van production was down 45%, with US tariff uncertainty cited as a contributing factor. The recently agreed 10% tariff on US imports from the UK came into effect on 30th June. The report predicts that this clarification will stimulate production.
Consumer confidence was cited as another factor by the report, with the GkF Consumer Confidence Index falling one point in July. meanwhile the GfK Savings Index jumped 7 points in July, the highest level since November 2007.
On the upside, the report said, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted stronger global economic growth than it forecast in April, partly due to the softening of some US tariffs.
The 2025 IMF global growth prediction is now 3% (and 3.1% in 2026), with the UK set to be the third fastest growing G7 economy after the USA and Canada.
Turning to fuel prices, the report said July saw diesel and petrol prices increase following a period of relative stability.
Diesel prices averaged 141.38p per litre in July. This was 2.89p per litre (2.09%) higher than June.
Petrol prices, meanwhile, averaged 133.87p per litre in July, rising 1.97p per litre (1.49%) on the June average price.
The report said: “Despite the small rise, both diesel and petrol prices remain notably lower than in July 2024. Back then, diesel was 8.97p per litre (5.97%) higher while petrol was 10.57p per litre (7.32%) above last month’s average.”
Commenting on the report, Kirsten Tisdale, Aricia senior logistics and supply chain consultant, said: “GfK’s saving index, which is reported separately but alongside its consumer confidence index, is 7 points higher than it was last year.
“And while that may be good news for building societies, it implies that consumers are being cautious about spending. Having said that, it’s no surprise that the TEG Courier Index is a little up on the year, given that diesel has risen… although still deflationary against last year.
“On the haulage side, HGV drivers are currently in high demand meaning that the TEG Haulage Index is still rising more quickly than general inflation.”
