October saw haulage and courier prices drop compared to September, partly driven by the impact of Black Friday on consumer demand during the month, the latest TEG Price Index has revealed.
Overall the TEG Price Index fell by 2.3 points (1.78%) to 127.2 compared to the previous month, whilst year-on-year, the index was up just 0.5 points (0.39%).
The Haulage Index saw slightly more movement than the overall index, falling 3.2 points (2.48%) last month. Compared to October 2024, it was 0.4 points (0.32%) higher.
Meanwhile, artic vehicles reflected the Haulage Index movement, falling 2.8 points (2.3%).
The Courier Index fell 1.5 points (1.15%) in October. This puts it a modest 0.8 points (0.63%) higher than a year ago.
The TEG Index found that vehicle availability contined to outstrip demand in October. Following September’s jump, overall vehicle availability rose by 18.9% in October, and artic availability increased by 21.7%. In contrast, demand dropped by 5.4% overall (and by 17.1% for artics).
The shifts in both availability and demand reflect those of October 2024, while October 2023 saw flatter movement, the index noted.
The report said: “The average HGV driver salary rose by 1.2% in October to £42,968. We’ve seen a rise each month since February 2025 alongside a continued increase in vacancies, with October reporting the highest yet – 5,639. That said, the increasing availability we’re seeing suggests many agency drivers are now returning to the market having enjoyed time off during the warm summer.
“And yet, demand has dropped. While it may seem obvious to blame the state of the economy, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose two points in October, suggesting a more positive sentiment from shoppers.
“It’s therefore possible that, rather than sluggish demand, 2025 demand has shifted. This year’s particularly sunny summer months encouraged early spending. Meanwhile, Black Friday has become a well-established event in the seasonal calendar, and those looking to make significant purchases may now be holding off in the hope of great deals. Restraint in October may become the norm for years to come.”
Turning to fuel prices the report to the Index noted that average diesel prices rose to 142.99p per litre in October, a rise of 1.15p (0.81%) - 3.86p per litre (2.77%) higher than in October 2024.
Average petrol prices also increased by 0.69p per litre (0.52%), with petrol prices now at 134.67p - 0.71p per litre (0.53%) higher than in October 2024.
The report commented: “The big question is whether the government will hold the long-running 5p per litre fuel duty freeze in this month’s budget. With a “black hole” to fill, scrapping the freeze may seem an easy option.
“However, the RHA has warned that doing so could increase household living costs by £7.3bn between now and 2029, stifling growth.”
Commenting on the results of the report, Kirsten Tisdale, Aricia senior logistics and supply chain consultant, said: “Goldman Sachs expects a cut in interest rates this Thursday when the Bank of England meets, even though the CPI is well above its target.
“This is not true of inflation in road transport, where the most recent ONS figures for Q3 were 2.1% for road freight and 0.8% for courier work.
“And the most timely figures, from the TEG Road Transport Price Index for October, are even lower at 0.3% and 0.6% for haulage and courier respectively.
“With the recent impact of JLR and the budget ahead of us, one or both of the Bank of England and government needs to give the economy a gee-up!”
