The new government needs to urgently clarify if diesel van production will be banned by 2030 to prevent leaving fleets in an “impossible” situation, software and fleet management specialist FleetCheck warned this week.

The Labour government has recently recommitted to its election manifesto pledge to reinstate the 2030 ban on the production of diesel cars but has yet to make clear whether the move will also apply to vans.

Peter Golding, Fleetcheck MD (pictured), said: “While electric car adoption by fleets has generally been a considerable success and the 2030 phase-out is absolutely viable, almost the opposite is true of electric vans. 

“Compromises over range, payload and charging times mean that fleet sales of new electric vans are struggling to rise above 5% and there appears to be limited prospects of this changing dramatically unless that is some kind of unforeseen paradigm shift.” 

He added that the objections fleets have to electric vans is “purely practical”, and questioned their use for anything other than local, light duty work.. 

“Fleets are looking at the ZEV Mandate – which will see electric van production rise from 10% of sales this year to 70% by 2030 – alongside the potential 2030 production ban, and they just can’t foresee how the situation is going to be resolved. 

“This is not a scenario where fleets are against zero emissions vehicles – almost all want to play their part in creating cleaner air and minimising the impact of climate change – but they believe that the electric vans on offer currently are simply not fit for their needs. 

”For many fleets, 2030 is less than one typical van replacement cycle away, and the lack of certainty is leaving them in an almost impossible situation.” 

He said that there was a credible argument that the 2030 ICE ban on vans was essentially symbolic anyway, given the planned impact of the ZEV Mandate on diesel van availability. 

“However, almost no-one I speak to in the fleet sector seems to think that the van ZEV Mandate can be maintained. You cannot force companies to buy vehicles they don’t want. Certainly, we speak to more fleets that are planning to continue to operate diesel vans in perpetuity than those who see electrification from 2030 as a viable option.” 

There were three potential solutions that could start to move the dial substantially, Golding added – taxation moves that provide a clear incentive for van electrification in the same manner as benefit-in-kind taxation has done for electric cars; a massive improvement in electric van technology; or dramatically lower electric van pricing.

He said: “The fact is that none of these developments are likely to happen, at least by 2030. There are not really any carrots that the government or manufacturers can offer that look likely to change the mind of fleets who are dead set against electrification on practical grounds. 

“The only other option that remains in this situation is for the government to effectively tax diesel vans out of existence but, given the level of resistance from businesses, the VED rate imposed would have to be very high rather than simply tweaked. The question is whether the government would want to pursue what is likely to be a deeply unpopular policy.” 

Golding said the best option is for the government, fleets and operators to have an in-depth conversation about electric vans, how their role can practically be increased over time, and what shape official policy should take.

He added: “At the moment, it does look very much as though government policy is diametrically opposed to practical fleet considerations and, at some point, something will have to give.” 

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