European road freight contract rates climbed whilst spot rates remained steady in Q4 2025, sustained by steady consumer demand on the continent, but continuing geopolitical turbulence in 2026 could hit this growth, a new report is warning.
According to the latest European Road Freight Rates Index from Upply, Ti and IRU, contract rates in Europe climbed to 136.9, a solid 2.6-point increase quarter-on-quarter and a 3.1-point rise year-on-year.
Meanwhile, spot rates reached 135.1, advancing modestly by 0.3 points from the previous quarter but declining 3.3 points compared to the same period last year.
Sustained consumer demand attributed to the uptick in contract rates, with businesses expecting stronger demand in the upcoming months, and locking in contracts now.
Michael Clover, Ti head of commercial development, questioned whether this growth will be sustained, in the light of the current global political climate and its impact on trade tariffs.
He said: “The sharp uptick in contract rates at the end of 2025 has been driven by an expectation that demand will recover in 2026, causing many shippers to seek to lock in cheaper freight rates now.
“We’ve seen contract rates pick up while spot rates remained stable, even during peak season, another sign that Q4 demand was quite soft despite better expectations for 2026.
“Given the geopolitical turbulence 2026 has started with, it will be interesting to see if the 2026 growth expectations from Q4 can be sustained.”
Operating costs also added slight upward pressure to contract rates. CNR data shows the cost of running a 40-tonne long-haul truck rose in Q4 2025. Diesel rose 0.66% QoQ. Driver costs increased 1.28%, up from 1.22% the previous quarter, though they’re still below 2024 levels.
Finance and insurance costs rose the most, by 4.23%. Meanwhile, new truck registrations across the EU27 grew 6% in Q3 2025, per ACEA, a sign that capacity is slowly increasing.
Vincent Erard, IRU senior director for strategy and development, said: “Last year was full of uncertainty for transport operators, as the global economy and international trade experienced significant turmoil.
“Despite steady road freight volumes in the EU and relatively positive industry output, operators must navigate unfamiliar market conditions while adapting to disruptive regulations, including new tolling schemes and potential fossil fuel tax increases.
“These uncertainties have long-term implications, such as delayed investments in new equipment, which could jeopardise future capacity.
“We must change how we see transport. It’s not a commodity; it’s a resource to nurture for a more sustainable future. To achieve this, we need to support operators with the right enabling conditions.”
Looking ahead, the report said inflation in Europe should ease to just under 2% in 2026, strenghtening purchasing power, which along with cheaper energy should boost consumption. Although this will put upward pressure on rates, real wage growth will decelerate compared to 2025, the report added.
However, competitive pressure from Chinese imports might put more upwards pressure on port routes, inching rates upwards, the report notes.
The report added: “Southern EU countries should continue outperforming in 2026, though not as dramatically as in 2025. We’re already seeing some slowdown in Spain and Italy, which could translate to softer spot rate increases in those markets.
“Germany’s economic growth is set for a considerable rebound, while Frances’s economy is set to grow 0.9% in 2026, according to Eurostat.
“According to the European Commission’s autumn forecasts, growth in the EU27 is expected to reach 1.4% increase in the upcoming year, thus we expect to see moderate rate growth as demand recovers.”
The Ti x Upply x IRU European Road Freight Sentiment Index declined by 2.0 index points to 10.7 in Q4-25, indicating that bullish expectations for European road freight rates moderated slightly towards the end of the year, though the overall sentiment is still leaning towards an increase in rates, the report said.
Despite the QoQ decline in the sentiment index, the majority of respondents continued to expect higher rates: “slight increase” remained the most common response, accounting for 38.2% of all answers, while expectations of a “substantial increase” rose to 11.2%. Flat rate expectations increased to 36.0%, suggesting limited growth in the first quarter of 2026.
Thomas Larrieu, Upply chief executive Officer, commented: “Our data highlights a clear disconnect between contract and spot markets at the end of 2025.
“Contract rates continue to move higher, supported by forward-looking purchasing and tightening on specific key corridors, while spot pricing remains constrained as short-term demand remains limited and household caution persists.
“Volumes are rebounding on several major lanes, but not consistently enough to lift the spot market more broadly. Overall, the recovery remains uneven across Europe, with momentum likely to emerge first on selected corridors.”
Key Highlights listed in the report include:
- The Q4 2025 European Road Freight Contract Rate Benchmark Index rose to 136.9, 2.6 points higher than in Q3 2025 and 3.1 points higher than in Q4 2024.
- The Q4 2025 European Road Freight Spot Rate Benchmark Index climbed to 135.1 points, 0.3 points higher than in Q3 2025, but 3.3 points lower year-on-year.
- EU retail trade volume rose by 2.3% year-on-year in November 2025.
- New truck registrations across the EU27 decreased by 6.2% in 2025, according to the ACEA, indicating potential capacity constraints.
- According to IRU’s driver shortage survey, there remain vacancies in 444,000 driver positions across Europe in 2025.
- Fuel prices rose slightly in Q4 2025, with the average European diesel price increasing by 0.66% QoQ.
- Tolling is becoming a larger component of trucks’ total cost of ownership. In some countries, such as Austria and Hungary, tolling costs per kilometre now exceed fuel costs.
- The outlook for rates across Europe in 2026 is for modest upward pressure, driven by a moderate recovery in European demand.
- The Road Freight Sentiment Index for Q4 stands at 10.7, down by 2.0 points from Q3, indicating that bullish expectations for European road freight rates moderated slightly towards the end of the year.
