ABI Research has forecasted a growth in eHGV sales and charging infrastructure installations could contribute to an industry generating charging revenues of USD$21bn by 2035.
Before we reach this stage though, the company stresses the eHGV market is at least six years behind passenger electric vehicles. This includes lower deployment levels and less charging infrastructure. ABI Research suggested this is a chicken-and-egg issue between prioritising eHGV sales or installing infrastructure prior to significant demand.
Abu Miah, electric vehicles analyst at ABI Research said: “The chicken-and-egg problem refers to the uptake of the electric vehicles being dependent on the presence of supporting charging infrastructure, but the installing of said infrastructure relies on the presence of an installed base of electric vehicles which will use it and pay off the investment.”
A key component in realising the potential value of heavy vehicle decarbonisation is the necessary grid capacity to install adequate charging infrastructure. Megawatt charging is expected to become an important tool to quickly extend vehicle range and facilitate long haul electric haulage as the vehicles and infrastructure matures. ABI Research explains strain on the grid is only expected to rise with an energy demand for charging anticipated to hit 23TWh by 2030.
Miah said: “Lead times for sites and even rejections to charging depot sites will rise, and stakeholders will have to find another way to continue electrification of the heavy-duty fleet. On-site generation, battery energy storage systems, battery swapping, or bi-directional charging have all been posited as potential solutions but are either negligible in their impact or too nascent in the technology to be implemented. Ensuring, and capturing, growth in the industry depends on the combined efforts of public and private stakeholders to streamline the charging experience and upgrade the grid to sustain a growing electric fleet.”
