In the wake of the shock of French giant Norbert Dentressangle being sold to US up-and-comer XPO Logistics, the question of which 3PL is not up for sale has raised its head. Frankly, if a company with the size, scope and ambition of ND can be acquired in this market, is anyone safe?

There is a big reason why European-based 3PLs should be looking over their shoulders and that’s the exchange rate. The US dollar is strong against the euro – which means US investors (be it XPO in NDs case, or FedEx in the case of TNT) are getting more bang for their buck. And that means that European 3PLs are targets.

The big two multi-modal 3PLs in Europe – DHL and Kuehne + Nagel– we’d say with a great deal of conviction, are safe from US acquisition because of their size. By turnover they are two of the biggest 3PLs in the world, so would be the buyer, not the target. The Motortransport.co.uk Top 100 ranks them as the two largest 3PLs in the UK by turnover.

Third largest in the UK is ND, closely followed by Wincanton. The LSE-listed firm is the largest UK owned and based 3PL and – despite an impressive turnaround by outgoing chief executive Eric Born - is perennially rumoured to be a takeover target. Unless any European or US 3PL wanted to expand its presence in the UK alone we’d find this hard to imagine that they would find new owners.

Danish giant DSV, which has much more of a presence in Europe than the UK (although it is the 22nd largest road transport operator in the UK by turnover), also looks safe. It’s presence in 70 countries, its 23,000 global employees and worldwide turnover of €6.5bn would be hard to integrate.

Ditto for the similarly sized Ceva – essentially a US company of $8.5bn turnover curiously headquartered in Ashby-de-la-Zouch in Leicestershire.

Any suitor for Geodis, primarily owned by the French state via its interest in parent company and rail operator SNCF, would face severe challenges. Gefco has a new(ish) owner in the shape of Russian Railways, while it is impossible to imagine that Yusen’s ultimate parent firm – Mitsubishi – would divest its multinational logistics operations.

German firms Hellmann Worldwide and Dascher would be more promising targets for US investors, but both have small operations in the UK.

A cheeky offer could be made to The Linde Group, the German industrial gas giant, for Gist. It has some tasty contracts in the UK (and £400m plus of domestic turnover to boot) but it would have to be the right fit at the right price.

Germany’s Hoyer Group was once linked with the sale of its Petrolog business to French firm GAC, but given its recent financial strength it is hard to see it divesting pillars of its business. That said, a €1bn a year multinational business with revenue streams from key markets such as petrochemicals, gases and food would be attractive, if niche, to a suitor.

The problem with the UK market is that there are not that many gems to be found for international investors. It’s hard to see what synergies and international scale a Stobart, Bibby, Turners or Malcolm would add.

It’s sad to say but UK 3PLs just wouldn’t interest a US investor. European 3PLs my look to snap-up assets or secure strength in certain markets, but the most likely buyer of a UK-based 3PL would be - another UK-based 3PL if the price is right. And that buyer could include XPO Logistics...